Abstract: Changes in mariculture were evaluated from production and area based on the series data of mariculture from 1986 to 2015, and the method of logistic curve fitting was applied to forecast the demand for sea area in China to understand the development trend of mariculture and future space demand. The production and area of mariculture in China continue to increase, with an average annual growth rate of 11.2% and 7.0%, respectively. Mariculture production will continue to occupy an important position in the supply of aquatic products in China, with the maximal proportion in shellfish culture, accounting for 72.0% in volume and 65.9% in area. However, shellfish culture industry shows a decreasing trend in the proportion of mariculture production. The proportion of fish, shrimps and crabs shows a downward trend in mariculture area, but an increasing trend in the proportion of mariculture production. Algae cultivation is rising steadily with a slow rate, and the others (sea cucumber, sea urchin, etc.) have obvious growth trend in both production and area, with average annual increase rate of 15% in aquaculture area. In 2020, 2025, and 2030, the sea area demand of mariculture in China will be 253.904 4×104, 267.096 8×104, and 274.698 3×104hectares, respectively, but the growth will slow down and tend to be saturated. Limited by the offshore environment and the sea used by other industries, aquaculture area has experienced a slow growth, and still a great potential for mariculture space due to demand and development of deep-sea aquaculture.
2018, Vol. 33 
