Potential geographical distribution of purple eel goby Taenioides cirratus in China under climate change scenarios
LIANG Yangyang, CHEN Kang, CUI Kai, FANG Ting, YANG Kun, LI Jing, ZHAO Xiuxia, YIN Feng, GUO Wei, LU Wenxuan*
1.Key Laboratory of Freshwater Aquaculture and Enhancement of Anhui Province, Fisheries Research Institute，Anhui Academy of Agricultural Sciences，Hefei 230001, China; 2.Key Laboratory of Freshwater Biodiversity Conservation,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Yangtze River Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Wuhan 430223, China; 3.Fishery Management Station, Chaohu Administration, Hefei 238001, China
Abstract: In order to probe into the potential geographical distribution of purple eel goby Taenioidescirratus in China in current and in the future, the suitable distribution areas of purple eel goby in China in current and in the future (2050s and 2070s) under the four climate scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5, RCP=representative concentration pathways, numbers after RCP represent the radiative forcing in the atmosphere by 2100, respectively, up to 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 W/m2) by the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model based on the distribution data of purple eel goby and 19 climate factors including temperature, moisture and precipitation. Results showed that the model’s AUC (area under curve) values of different climate scenarios were above 0.96, indicating that the accuracy of prediction reached “excellent”. Precipitation of coldest quarter, mean diurnal range and mean of monthly and minimum temperature of coldest month were found to be the main limiting factors for the distribution of purple eel goby. Under current climate model, the suitable distribution areas were mainly concentrated in the Yangtze River Estuary, Pearl River Estuary, Leizhou Peninsula and nearby offshore areas, the marginal coastal areas of Hainan and Taiwan and the areas along the Yangtze River such as southeast Sichuan and southwest Chongqing. In the future, the suitable distribution area for purple eel goby will expand greatly. In 2050s (2041 to 2060), the purple eel goby will had highly suitable area and expand to the north under the four climate scenarios of RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5, with an average increase by 83.8% compared with current climate model. For the moderately suitable area, apart from the margins of the highly suitable areas, they will expand to the Yangtze River Basin and the Huaihe River Basin, with an average increase by 198.5% compared with current climate model. By 2070s (2061 to 2080), there will be no significant change in the suitable distribution area of purple eel goby compared with 2050s. In conclusion, future climate change will promote purple eel goby northward and westward expansion and increase its suitable distribution areas in China.
2022, Vol. 37 
