The analysis of marine capture production and mariculture production in China by ARMAV models
ZHANG Li-mei1,WANG Xue-biao2,LI Jiu-qi3,WANG Bo3
1.School of Science,Dalian Ocean University,Dalian 116023,China;2.College of Math and Quantitative Economics,Dongbei University of Finance&Economics,Dalian 116025,China;3.School of Marine Environmental Engineering,Dalian Ocean University,Dalian 116023,China
Abstract: The auto-regressive moving average vector(ARMAV)models are established by the data of marine capture production and mariculture production in China from 1954 to 2006 to reveal the relationship between the marine capture production and mariculture production in China,tracking and forecasting accurately the short-term trend in future.The use of the ARMAV models here not only prevents the sickness of un-touching the relationship between the marine capture production and the mariculture production when using auto-regressive moving average(ARMA) models for the two sets of data respectively,but also makes the algorithm have pertinence after smoothness disposal of the data in advance.Both of the results of the images and the errors demonstrate the validity of the algorithm when tracking and forecasting the two data set by the ARMAV(2,1,2)models given in the paper.
张丽梅, 王雪标, 李久奇, 王博. 基于ARMAV模型的国内海洋捕捞与海水养殖产量的分析[J]. 大连海洋大学学报, 2011, 26(2): 157-161.
ZHANG Li-mei, WANG Xue-biao, LI Jiu-qi, WANG Bo. The analysis of marine capture production and mariculture production in China by ARMAV models. Journal of Dalian Ocean University, 2011, 26(2): 157-161.
2011, Vol. 26 
